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General market news
Equity Index |
Week-to-Date |
Month-to-Date |
Year-to-Date |
12-Month |
S&P 500 |
0.80% |
4.63% |
7.40% |
16.88% |
Nasdaq Composite |
0.98% |
4.06% |
13.83% |
24.12% |
DJIA |
0.05% |
5.04% |
4.28% |
18.29% |
MSCI EAFE |
–1.45% |
1.26% |
–1.17% |
4.84% |
MSCI Emerging Markets |
–1.67% |
1.01% |
–5.61% |
3.05% |
Russell 2000 |
0.63% |
1.91% |
9.73% |
19.95% |
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income Index |
Month-to-Date |
Year-to-Date |
12-Month |
U.S. Broad Market |
0.09% |
–1.50% |
–0.87% |
U.S. Treasury |
0.07% |
–1.42% |
–1.37% |
U.S. Mortgages |
0.11% |
–0.95% |
–0.43% |
Municipal Bond |
–0.11% |
–0.11% |
0.73% |
Source: Morningstar Direct
What to look forward to
This week’s data is all about prices—and whether inflation is picking up.
On Thursday, the producer price reports are expected to show that the headline index, which includes energy and food, rose 0.3 percent for July, the same as the 0.3-percent increase in June. There may be some downside here, on declining energy prices. The question will be how much that factor is offset by tariff-driven increases in other input prices, especially steel and electronics. The annual change is expected to stay stable at 3.4 percent, indicating that longer-term inflation pressures remain above the Fed’s target range. The core index, which excludes energy and food, is also expected to remain steady at 0.3 percent for July, the same as for June. The annual number should remain solid at 2.8 percent. Although these figures are stable in the aggregate, under the surface, tariffs are reportedly driving a faster rise in inflation. The effect of tariffs, however, is not expected to show up in the aggregate numbers yet.
Also on Thursday, the consumer price reports are expected to show rising inflation at the headline level. The headline index, which includes food and energy, is expected to have risen 0.2 percent in July, up from 0.1 percent in June. The annual figure is also expected to have risen from 2.9 percent in June to 3 percent in July. The core price index, on the other hand, is expected to remain steady, with the monthly figure at 0.2 percent and the annual figure staying put at 2.3 percent. As with the producer price numbers, these figures would indicate that inflation continues to run above the Fed’s target levels, which should continue to drive interest rates up.
Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.
© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®
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